Former President Donald Trump maintains a notable lead over his Republican competitors in Iowa, less than three months before the start of the party’s presidential primaries in the state. According to an NBC News survey released last Monday (30), and conducted in partnership with the Des Moines Register and Mediacom last week, Trump enjoys an advantage of almost 30 percentage points over his main rivals, Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, ahead of voting scheduled for January 15 in the Midwestern US state.
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Trump’s strong position in Iowa is notable, even considering the significant legal challenges he faces. The former president is currently involved in four criminal cases and three civil cases, some of which are related to his attempts to challenge his 2020 election loss to Democrat Joe Biden. Despite these legal issues, 65% of those interviewed in the survey believe he would have the ability to win the November 2024 presidential election if he decides to run for another term.
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J. Ann Selzer, responsible for conducting the poll, noted that “he [Trump] is still the dominant player in the field, and his position has effectively strengthened since August.” Among 404 likely Iowa Republican caucus voters polled between October 22 and 26, 43% chose Trump as their first choice candidate, while 16% opted for Nikki Haley and another 16% chose Ron DeSantis. It is worth noting that the survey has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.
Trump’s 27 percentage point lead increased from the August results, when he led DeSantis by a 23 percentage point margin. Many members of the Republican Party believe the legal charges against Trump are politically motivated. It’s important to note that this poll was conducted before Trump’s former vice president, Mike Pence, withdrew his bid for the party’s presidential nomination over the weekend.